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NDSU researcher releases updated economic forecast on the effects of COVID-19 on North Dakota

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Published: Sep. 1, 2020 at 1:46 PM CDT
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FARGO, N.D. (Valley News Live) - The Center for the Study of Public Choice and Private Enterprise has updated its special edition of the Economic Outlook report forecasting the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the North Dakota economy.

The Economic Outlook Special Report details the possible effects of rising national unemployment and collapsing oil prices on state economic conditions. The report uses the North Dakota Forecast Model developed by Dr. Jeremy Jackson, director of the Center and professor of agribusiness and applied economics at North Dakota State University.

The updated forecast model projects:

· North Dakota’s total wages and salaries will decline by about 8 percent and could fall by as much as 40 percent.

· The North Dakota labor force will decrease by between 5 and 10 percent.

· North Dakota’s unemployment rate will continue to increase next quarter but begin to decline again in the first quarter of 2021.

· North Dakota’s gross state product will fall by between 27 and 45 percent next quarter.

· Total tax collections in North Dakota will decrease by about 16 percent and could fall by as much as 50 percent.

To read the entire report, click here.

About the North Dakota Forecast Model

The North Dakota Forecast Model uses historical data and trends to project future economic outcomes. For the special report, researchers forecast the effects of COVID-19 by introducing rising national unemployment rates and potential West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. The model takes each of these scenarios and uses past trends to forecast the effect on North Dakota’s economy. The report displays results for key economic indicators such as wages, the size of the labor force, unemployment, gross state product and total tax collections.

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