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The Super Bowl Equation - Valley News Live - KVLY/KXJB - Fargo/Grand Forks

The Super Bowl Equation

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Wondering who's going to win Super Bowl 47? Well, there is an equation that can actually predict the winner. Developed by NDSU Statistics Chair, Rhonda Magel, the equation focuses on three main factors of the game.

Magel and her team were able to determine the factors by looking at point spreads for all 49ers and Ravens games this season. Determining that turnover Margin, difference in total yards, and difference in penalty yards, all played a role in both teams point spreads.   

The equation favors the 49ers slightly, meaning that if nothing changed and everything stayed even the 49ers would be predicted the winner. This year's equation looks like this:

Y= TOM (Ravens)

+(Total Yards (Ravens) - Total Yards (49ers))/61

-(Num Pen Yards (Ravens) - Num Pen Yards (49ers))/31

If Y> 0.60 Prediction is Ravens win otherwise 49ers will win.

It works by using regression techniques to predict a winner, says Magel. "Based on regression we were able to determine turnover margin equivalency for a difference in number of total yards and difference in number of penalty yards."

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