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Heitkamp Leads Berg in Latest Poll - Valley News Live - KVLY/KXJB - Fargo/Grand Forks

State Split in US Senate Race

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  • State Split in US Senate Race inKVLY/KFYR North Dakota U.S. Senate PollMore>>

  • KVLY/KFYR Poll Demographics

    KVLY/KFYR Poll Demographics

    DEMOGRAPHICS: PARTY IDENTIFICATION: Democrat 181 (29%) Republican 239 (38%) Independent or Other 205 (33%) AGE:
    demographics of election poll of 6/7/2012
  • How The Poll Was Conducted

    KVLY/KFYR POLL: How The Poll Was Conducted

    The KVLY/KFYR Election Poll was designed to produce the most accurate results. Here is how we conducted our poll. This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida
    The KVLY/KFYR Election Poll was designed to produce the most accurate results.  Here is how we conducted our poll.

==NEW===

GEOGRAPHIC DIVIDE IN U.S. SENATE RACE

A Valley News Live KVLY/KFYR Election poll shows that if the North Dakota Senate race were held today, Heidi Heitkamp holds a very slim 47%-46% lead over likely Republican nominee Rick Berg (who is leading his primary race against Duane Sands by a wide 76%-16% margin).

 While both candidates receive overwhelming backing from voters who identify themselves with their respective political parties, Heitkamp remains competitive based on her 51%-36% lead over Berg among self-described independent voters.

 There is a significant geographic divide in this contest, with Heitkamp winning a majority of the vote in Cass County and Eastern North Dakota and Berg carrying the Bismarck-Mandan area and the rest of Western North Dakota.  

REGION                  HEITKAMP      BERG      UNDECIDED

 Fargo/Cass County          53%          39%          8%

Eastern North Dakota        52%          36%         12%

Bismarck/Mandan     38%          57%          5%

Western North Dakota        40%          55%          5%

WATCH A DISCUSSION OF THE POLL RESULTS ON 6:30 POINT OF VIEW ON KXJB 4.  Joel Heitkamp and Chris Berg face off on this year's biggest political race.

MEN, WOMEN, DIFFER IN SENATE RACE

SEX                     HEITKAMP      BERG      UNDECIDED

Men                        43%          52%          5%

Women       50%          41%          9%

 

UPDATE: Campaigns weigh in on our poll. Click here to view

MORE ABOUT THE POLL

DEMOGRAPHICS
HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

NATIONAL MEDIA COVERAGE OF OUR POLL

Coverage in the Wall Street Journal (blog)
RealClearPolitics - Latest Election Polls
POLITICO Morning Score - POLITICO.com
Dem Heitkamp edges ahead in NDakota Senate poll - Washington ...
MSN.COM First Read

RealClearPolitics - Polls
Hotline On Call

 



==ORIGINAL STORY ===

POLL SHOWS HEITKAMP WITH SLIM LEAD

The latest polling in the North Dakota U.S. Senate race shows Democrat Heidi Heitkamp  holding a very slim lead over likely Republican nominee Rick Berg.  Just 7% of likely November voters in our polls say they have not yet made up their minds.  The poll was conducted for KVLY and KFYR Television by Mason-Dixon Polling Group.

QUESTION: If the 2012 election for North Dakota's U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Heidi Heitkamp, the Democrat, and Rick Berg, the Republican?

HEITKAMP 47%
BERG 46%
UNDECIDED   7%

A total of 625 registered voters were interviewed statewide by telephone.  All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

QUESTION: If the 2012 election for North Dakota's U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Heidi Heitkamp, the Democrat, and Duane Sand, the Republican?

HEITKAMP 46%
SAND 38%
UNDECIDED 16%

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday or this week.  The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ±4%. 

QUESTION: If the 2012 Republican primary for North Dakota's U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for Rick Berg or Duane Sand?

BERG 73%
SAND 16%
UNDECIDED 11%

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

While both candidates receive overwhelming backing from voters who identify themselves with their respective political parties, Heitkamp remains competitive based on her 51%-36% lead over Berg among self-described independent voters.

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

HEITKAMP 51%
BERG 36%
UNDECIDED  13%

  Not surprisingly, Heitkamp is ahead among women, while Berg leads with men.


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